My Journey in HKSFA-HKEX Portfolio Management Competition 2017

As the HSI was down quite a bit on Wednesday, long 4 lots of HSI Sept future.    Bullish this month => All IN.  Market News: 2016年旺盛的房地產銷售刺激房地產投資的恢復，也帶來下游行業的需求，而且這次房地產復甦不僅僅限於一線市場，在3-4線市場的銷售尤其旺盛，也幫助很多開發商去庫存。 Strategy: The prospect of the portfolio, with focus in tier-2 stocks, is looking good in the coming month =>  Over weight.       Holding Period Return:  73.5 %   Risk:  30.7% Weekly Actions Sell :  - 700  騰訊控股 : hedge by index   Buy :    -  1313華潤水泥 : Optimistic sales figures - 0960  龍湖地產 : under value, good dividend ratio -2007 碧桂園 : Company BuyBack Core-Holdings “One-belt One-Road” 3808中國重汽 , 3339  中國龍工 ,  Consumer stocks : 175 吉利汽車. Technology Stocks, such as 0700 Tencent, 0522 AH stocks :  2238 廣汽集團 0358 江西銅業股份  Real Estate : 3333 恆大 2007 碧桂園 &  0960  龍湖地產 Commodity :  0323 馬鞍山鋼鐵股份,1313 華潤水泥控股...

The HSI was trading in a narrow range in the past week.  The tension of North Korea and US is high but the chance of having a war is very low.  First, US is pretty busy with its internal affair, the typhoon in Florida.  Second, the resigned US officer stated that the chance of war with North Korea is NIL.     The action of purchase of 698  通達集團 failed as the price rise rapidly in Monday (>10%).  2006  錦江酒店 is having a rapid rise.  Let's see how high it could reach.   Market News: 今年強勢股輪流炒，紙業股屬當中的表表者，股價累積升幅達40%以上。歸根究柢，紙業股上半年都能交出亮麗的成績表，收入及利潤均有顯著增長，部分股份更獲大行「庇蔭」。內地近月繼續推出環保政策，企業門檻變得更高，有助加速淘汰中小企業，龍頭企業的地位將會穩如泰山。 龍頭玖龍紙業 （02689） 早前宣布盈喜。公司表示，倘撇除經營和融資活動的滙兌虧損，以及衍生金融工具產生的虧損，預期截至今年6月底的全年業績，公司權益持有人應佔盈利，按年增長不低於60%。 Strategy: The prospect of the portfolio, with focus in tier-2 stocks, is looking good in the coming month =>  Over weight.       Holding Period Return: 55.4 %   Risk: 30.7% Time Weig...

Speculating the typhoon news turns out to be a mistake.  The revenue growth of 27  銀河娛樂 exceeds market expectation.  It is OK to buy back 27 on Thursday and record minus loss.  The stock market is and expected steady at 28,000. Two typhoons has hit the Macau badly in the past 4 days and the entertaining business will be bad in the next couple of week.  It is time to  DUMP & SHORT !  Other the other hand, real estate companies in China is doing great this year so far, and are expected doing great again in the coming months. Market News: 港股8月份出現板塊輪流炒現象，中資金融股成領市大軍，而美元持續偏軟更帶動商品價格急升，金屬資源股大翻身；智能手機升級潮帶動下，手機設備股成為市場焦點，丘鈦科技 (01478) 月內更急漲逾倍。隨著市傳蘋果公司iPhone 8將於9月中旬亮相，金融界專家均繼續看好手機設備股。另一邊廂，中國樓市銷售出現放緩，加上內房累升不少，專家建議則適度減磅。 市場即將進入「金九銀十」的傳統內房銷售旺季，內房股走勢或有望造好，不過，行業銷售升勢逐漸放緩，上半年內房銷售強勁，加上高基數效應，下半年銷售表現有很大機會不及上半年暢旺，而一、二及三線城市樓價按月漲幅明顯回落，故內房在「金九銀十」期間，升勢未必太樂觀。 另外，三、四線城市於今年上半年已大幅去庫存，加上中央有意為三、四線樓市降溫，銷售能否維持高增長仍然不太樂觀。不少內房股今年以來累積不少升幅，例如融創 (01918)、碧桂園(02007)累升逾1倍，若下半年銷售未能延續上半年升...

As expected, HSI is still on the rise.  Tier-2 stocks, the core stocks, are doing really well.  Blue chips are doing fine, such as Chinese Banks and insurance company.   Two typhoons has hit the Macau badly in the past 4 days and the entertaining business will be bad in the next couple of week.  It is time to DUMP & SHORT !  Other the other hand, real estate companies in China is doing great this year so far, and are expected doing great again in the coming months. As mentioned, the portfolio heavily invested in tier-2 stocks and has low co-relation with the HSI index.   This strategy is doing fine so far, and the risk is well managed at 30.9%.   The portfolio take advantage of this and will hold 30% of HIS in the future. Competition Ranking My portfolio is in top 4 in term of return and rank number ONE, with another top contestant,  in term of Sharpe Ratio.  I am definitely in the game. Market News: 港股今早先窄幅高開２０點，隨著中資金融股陸續放榜，市場...

The Hang Seng index has been rising in the past seven month.  That is amazing, having said that, rule is mean to be broken.  My guess is : there is still room for Hang Seng index. The portfolio, with a lot of infra-structure stocks and cyclical stocks, appears to have very low, if not negative, co-relation with Hang Seng index.  As a result, a couple of Hang Seng future contract were bought to manage the portfolio risk.   A portfolio with high return and low co-relation with the bench mark, that is more than I bargain for. Regarding to the competition, I was in top 5 in term of return and rank number two in term of Sharpe Ratio.  It is looking good and I expect to do better in August. Market News: 港股目前處於業績期，長和 （００００１） 昨日（３日）收市後放榜，惟表現遜於市場預期 ；同系長實地產 （０１１１３） 則按年升１４％，好過預期。長實急升帶動港股向上之動力，正 好被長和急跌所從抵銷，港股全日變得窄幅上落。接下來，大價股港交所 （００３８８） 、中移 動 （００９４１） 、騰訊分別將於本月９日、１０日及１６日公布中期業績，投資者宜持觀望態 度。 　　中金最新預期騰訊次季收入按年升５５％至５５５億元人民幣，按季則漲１２％，較市場平 均預期高出５﹒７％。惟該股一個月內（以７月４日始計起），已累升近１...

It is another good week to the portfolio with 5.0%. Outlook: 頭兩季經濟增長均為６﹒９％，故上半年仍增６﹒９％。工農業生產穩定增長，如夏糧及肉 類生產均增約１％，次季工業增長比首季稍微加快。通脹形勢穩定：消費物價指數半年為 １﹒４％，而工業品指數次季升幅回軟，上半年升６﹒６％比首季低０﹒８個百分點。拉動增長 仍然靠消費，零售額升１０﹒４％而比首季快０﹒４個百分點。投資卻有所放緩：上半年升 ８﹒６％比首季跌０﹒６個百分點。佔總投資額逾六成的民企投資增幅只為７﹒２％。外貿方面 出入口按人民幣計價分別升１５％及２５﹒７％，表現不俗，但順差下跌逾１７％卻會拉低 ＧＤＰ增長。故三頭馬車中只有消費還較像樣。按目前情況看經濟可以穩中有進來形容；一是增 長似正觸底靠穩，二是經濟的結構及質素仍繼續改進，發展水平逐步提升。工業中高科及裝備產 業表現突出，增長分別為１３﹒１％及１１﹒５％，比平均高出不少。工業企業表現有所好轉， 產能利用率上升而負債率及成本比重下跌，頭五個月利潤更勁升２２﹒７％。另一方面又要關注 出口中機電產品的增幅１４﹒６％還稍於平均，增長極佳的風光不再。 News: 北水續來，港股九連升! 九個交易日以來恒指累升1400點，今日(20日)主板成交905.18億元，為本周第三日成交超過900億元。自7月以來，港股成交有增加趨向，如旺市持續，突破千億成交無難度，加上港交所 (00388) 最近股價呈突破，不妨追入迎接大時代。 高盛睇245元 Strategy: As capitals from the China is pouring in, H stocks will be the focus particularly those with large gap between A-H stocks.    Actions 1.  Sell off 2333 長城汽車 for its disappointing sales performance in June, and will repurchase it early August. Holding Period Return: 30 .1% Trading Plan this Week : Sell :...

It is another good week to the portfolio with 8.0% profit while the market rises 4.1%. Outlook: 中國經濟大約每15年換一次主題， 下一個15年中國經濟的主題是消費， 如今中國的人口中，每6位就有一位是90後。 根據OMD產業報告，38%的90後沒有儲蓄，36%過度消費，只有26%有適當的儲蓄，大部分人自「活在當下」。 20-29歲城市人口中，52%經常去健身房運動，40-49歲人口中只有8%、50歲以上人口中只有4%去健身房運動。中國的動漫遊消費增長極其迅速，15-30歲人口是購買力的絕對主力。90後消費，較之前的世代有明顯的不同，他們更注重於體驗，注重於個性，更任性隨意，不太在乎上一代眼中的「價值」。 News: - 中聯重科(1157)同業濰柴動力(2338)發中期盈喜，指受惠宏觀經濟及重卡行業改善，相信集團亦能受惠。 -《經濟通通訊社１４日專訊》中聯重科 （０１１５７） （深：０００１５７） 公布，預計今 年上半年扭虧為盈，賺１１億元（人民幣．下同）至１３億元，去年同期虧損為８﹒３７億元。 基本每股盈利為０﹒１４元至０﹒１７元，去年同期每股虧損０﹒１１元。 　　營業收入大幅增長主因包括，今年上半年國內基礎設施項目開工率和公司重點產品設備使用 率繼續穩步提升，公司營業收入較去年同期有較大幅度增長。其中，公司的核心業務工程機械板 塊的營業收入按年增長約８０％，主要產品混凝土機械、起重機械、樁工機械等產品的營業收入 繼續保持大幅增長。（ｋｙ） Strategy: As capitals from the China is pouring in, H stocks will be the focus particularly those with large gap between A-H stocks.    Actions 1.  Sell off 2333 長城汽車 for its disappointing sales performance in June, and will repurchase it early August. Holding Period Return:  25.1% T...